Competitive House races with early poll closings, plus North Carolina. Each desk column shows whether that desk has called the race and links to its decision. Compare the winners with Silver Bulletin's projected vote share to see which way the polls missed.
Why this page exists: early in the night, the first calls in competitive races are a quick read on which way the nationwide polling error is running. If the winners in these races keep matching Silver Bulletin's lean, the polls look about right. If they keep going the other way, the polls are missing in that party's direction.
How to read it: each row is a race that was a Toss Up or Lean in Cook's and Silver Bulletin's ratings and whose polls close by 9 PM ET (plus the two North Carolina races). A desk (NBC, AP, ABC, Fox) is only marked once it says it has projected a winner; a lead or partial count is not a call. Fox's race-call feed relays AP, so those calls are listed under AP. Called races sit at the top. The tile counts calls that went against Silver Bulletin's lean. Early calls are a small, non-random sample, so treat the pattern as a hint, not a conclusion.
Senate race calls. All 35 Senate seats on the ballot, including the Ohio and Florida specials. This tab is a live board of which decision desks (NBC, AP, ABC, Fox) have called each race, with Cook's rating and Silver Bulletin's projected vote share for reference. The polling-error read is the House tab, which follows only the competitive races that close early. Here, safe seats are included, so most early calls will simply match the ratings.
How to read it: a desk is only marked once it says it has projected a winner. In Alaska, Idaho, Montana, Nebraska and South Dakota the main non-Republican challenger is an independent, shown as (I). Poll-closing times are the usual statewide times from general knowledge, not checked against state election offices as the House times were; the local-time column shows exceptions. North Carolina's time is unconfirmed (*). Called races sit at the top.
Connecting… Desks are checked about every 5 minutes Times in Eastern
| Ratings | NBCnot yet checked | APnot yet checked | ABCnot yet checked | Foxnot yet checked | Vs. Silver lean |
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A cell reads Called only when that desk has declared a winner. It links to the desk's own page for the race. Until then it shows Polls open or No call yet. Desks are checked about every 5 minutes, so a call can show up a few minutes after the desk makes it.
The last column compares the winner with the party Silver Bulletin projected ahead. In line means the winner matches that lean; Against means it does not. A pattern across several races says more than any one seat, and a call is not a final count.
Of 54 seats Cook rates Toss Up, Lean R or Lean D, 48 close by 9:00 PM ET, and Silver Bulletin also rates 25 of those competitive. North Carolina is the one exception: NC-1 and NC-11 are added because either Cook or Silver qualifies them, which brings the list to 27.
Vote shares are as Silver Bulletin publishes them and do not always add to 100. Silver Bulletin rates both North Carolina seats Likely D.
* North Carolina's 8:15 PM ET close reflects a delay announced this evening, from the original 7:30 PM. No official page confirming the new time was found, so treat it as unconfirmed.
Every time comes from a state or county election office page, except North Carolina's new time. Where a page gives only local time, the Eastern time is converted here. Alabama and Texas assume Central time, Arizona assumes Mountain Standard Time (no daylight saving) and Colorado assumes Mountain. No Texas page mentions a Mountain-time exception. Ohio and Wisconsin rest on a county page because a statewide page could not be retrieved. For New York the state elections board page gave no hours, so the state Attorney General's Election Day release is used.
| State | Closes (as stated) | Source |
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Ratings and forecasts:
Cook Political Report House ratings
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Silver Bulletin FLIPR House forecast (paid)
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Cook Senate ratings
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Silver Bulletin FLIPR Senate forecast (paid)
Decision desks:
NBC News
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AP
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ABC News
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Fox News